Quarterly Investment Outlook

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Economic Activity

After 2020 saw the biggest economic downturn recorded in Colombian history, the economy experienced a sharp recovery in 2021, reaching an annual growth of 10.6%. The economy closed
last year 2.8% above 2019 level. On a quarterly basis, Q4 GDP increase came in at 10.8% (see Figure 1). Almost all economic sectors are above pre-pandemic levels and had a positive
contribution to overall growth, with manufacturing and commerce as the main driving force in the economy. Nevertheless, sectors such as oil and mining and construction have not returned to 2019 levels yet. On the demand side, household and government consumption closed the year above pre-pandemic levels.

Omicron’s wave hit at the end of Q4 (see Figure 2). However, the advances in the vaccination plan -where more than 45% of the population was fully vaccinated at the end of 2021- made the
country less vulnerable to the fourth COVID-19 peak. This led daily deaths to increase at much lower rates than daily cases. As a result, no strong mobility restrictions were implemented during Q4, allowing the economy to maintain the momentum experienced in Q3…

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